Most of the world’s TV viewers who watched the unprecedented scenes in the White House recently when the Trump/ Vance/ Zelensky dogfight took place were horrified. Most people never expected to see the US president and his vice-president treating a wartime leader like a recalcitrant schoolboy, especially when the prior indications were that this would be a love-in, resulting in the signing of a much-sought-after contract giving the US access to rare minerals, and followed by a joint media conference.
Many people have a poor impression of President Trump as a person (despite some of his policies being sensible and justified), but this fracas confirmed the view of some that he is not a gentleman and that he does not know how to behave.
Despite this, there is also a view among several people that the whole incident, distasteful as it was, was part of a carefully orchestrated plan to end the war and create a balance of interests between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States.
President Zelensky has made it clear that he will not agree to peace unless Ukraine receives security guarantees. His best option would be immediate membership of NATO, which guarantees that all members, including the US, will defend each other against an aggressor.
Russia is obdurate that it will not tolerate NATO being extended to Ukraine, thus surrounding Russia. Putin has also not yet agreed to sit down and negotiate peace. The US does not want to have to declare war on Russia if NATO so decides. It is unwilling to give Ukraine security guarantees and perhaps find itself in a war with Russia (and probably China). This would be the dreaded Third World War.
The sophisticated approach is the agreement on rare minerals between the US and Ukraine. It would bring huge American interests and investments into Ukraine and be a neat way of dissuading Russia from attacking Ukraine and endangering US interests. Without formal NATO membership and without giving security guarantees to Ukraine, the war could be over. Zelensky’s condition for peace is security guarantees.
What better way to make him realise that the US holds all the cards and will neither support NATO membership nor give security guarantees than by humiliating him with a planned public attack on him by Trump and Vance? What remains is to entice Russia to negotiate peace and persuade it that the US is a friend of Russia.
What better way to soften up Putin than by humiliating Zelensky before the world media? The bonus is that Trump’s calls for the NATO countries to increase their defence spending and no longer rely on the USA to defend them using American funds, as has been the case for the past eighty years since the Second World War, would now get action.
Already, the UK and several other European countries have pledged that their defence budgets will be significantly increased in the next few years. The result of this is that NATO will be far better armed and equipped and able to defend NATO members if this becomes necessary.
Trump’s insistence on European money being used, rather than US money doing most of it, means that his call for action will be largely successful as they take their responsibilities more seriously.
The World wants peace and an end to the 3-year war waged by Russia against a weaker neighbour with the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives. If the scenario sketched here is correct, then both Trump and Zelensky will emerge as heroes.
* Douglas Gibson is a former opposition chief whip and a former ambassador to Thailand.