South Africa’s mid-year population is estimated to have increased to 63,02 million in 2024, with the female population accounting for 51% (approximately 32,13 million) of the population, according to the report released by Statistics South Africa on Tuesday.
Gauteng continues to record the largest share of the South African population, with approximately 15,83 million people (25,1%) living in this province. KwaZulu-Natal is the province with the second largest population, with an estimated 12,34 million people (19,6%) living in the province. With a population of approximately 1,36 million people (2,2%), Northern Cape remains the province with the smallest share of the South African population.
According to the report, 27,5% of the population is aged younger than 15 years (16,8 million) and approximately 9,7% (6,13 million) is 60 years or older.
The provinces reflecting the highest percentage of children younger than 15 within its structure are Limpopo (33,2%) and EC (31,8%). The proportion of elderly persons aged 60 years and older in South Africa is increasing over time and as such policies and programmes to care for the needs of this growing population should be prioritised.
The report further shows that life expectancy at birth for 2024 is estimated at 63,6 years for males and 69,2 years for females.
The infant mortality rate for 2024 is estimated at 22,9 per 1 000 live births.
The estimated overall HIV prevalence rate is approximately 12,7% among the South African population.
The total number of people living with HIV (PLWHIV) is estimated at approximately 8 million in 2024. For adults aged 15–49 years, an estimated 16,7% of the population is HIV positive.
For the period 2021–2026, Gauteng and Western Cape are estimated to experience the largest inflow of migrants of approximately, 1 401 895 and 491 296 respectively.
“There is a reduction in international migration, which is indicative of the COVID-19 travel restrictions and subsequent impact on migratory patterns since March 2020. Migration is an important demographic process, as it shapes the age structure and distribution of the national and provincial population,” said Chief Director: Demography and Population Statistics Iturralde Diego.
In the South African context, the rise in life expectancy can be attributed to three key trends. Firstly, the expanded rollout of antiretroviral therapy (ART) over time has had a major impact on those living with HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus). South Africa has the largest ART programme in the world, leading to a reduction in AIDS-related deaths from 284 249 in 2005 (42% of all deaths) to 68,406 in 2024 (12.5% of all deaths).
The second reason is that the uptake of vaccinations and treatments for Covid-19 infections has led to a significant decline in Covid-19 related deaths since July 2021.
Thirdly, the decrease in the infant mortality rate (IMR) from an estimated 57 infant deaths per 1 000 live births in 2002 to 22,9 per 1 000 live births in 2024, has a direct impact on the improvement of life expectancy at birth. These indices reflect improvements in the overall health and living conditions of the population.
The Star