Johannesburg - ANC deputy president Paul Mashatile’s bid to take over the post of Deputy President David Mabuza in government got a boost this week when ANC secretary general Fikile Mbalula told the ANC parliamentary caucus that Mashatile's arrival in the Union Buildings was imminent.
At least two independent ANC sources said Mbalula on Thursday gave the caucus orders to prepare for Mashatile's rise, amid speculation that a group in the governing party aligned to President Cyril Ramaphosa, dubbed the “Chris Hani cabal”, opposed the move.
Ramaphosa’s “indecisiveness” has also been mentioned as a factor that played into the cabal’s hands, raising hopes that Mashatile’s chances could be scuppered, said a senior ANC leader speaking on condition of anonymity.
The delays started before Mashatile was sworn in in Parliament when Mbalula had to wait for Luthuli House’s authority to make changes to the ANC election list at the Electoral Commission. Later when he could have been sworn in virtually, there was an insistence that it should be done physically, and again several days were lost.
A source said that Ramaphosa was advised that he could replace Mabuza with Mashatile outside of the bigger Cabinet reshuffle and reconfiguration of government departments, but he ignored the proposal.
“The deputy president is not a reshuffle but a replacement of one person with the other. It is known that there is a commitment to do that, so why don’t you do it? There is now a whole lot of speculation and it is not helping that there are delays,” said the source.
Mabuza openly declared that he was ready to pack his bags to create space for Mashatile, and the continued delays fuelled perceptions that Ramaphosa was also hesitant to invite his ANC number two to the Union Buildings.
The members of the “cabal” had been mentioned as prominent ANC leaders from the Chris Hani region in Queenstown in the Eastern Cape province, including Minister in the Presidency Mondli Gungubele - who confirmed in the media that people fashioned him and others as the "Chris Hani cabal" because they were born in the same area of the Eastern Cape and had a common interest in the ANC in the Eastern Cape.
Media reports stated that others associated with the “bullish" cabal were Minerals and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, Home Affairs Minister Aaron Motsoaledi, Health Minister Joe Phaahla, Water and Sanitation Minister Senzo Mchunu, Environmental Affairs Minister Barbara Creecy and former Tourism minister Derek Hanekom - who was the main organiser of the Renew22 campaign that backed Ramaphosa’s re-election for a second term at the Nasrec national conference last December.
But ANC insiders said the cabal was "toothless" and had fragmented since its efforts to gain influence in the ANC failed to gain traction as far back as the national conference, where some of their candidates for the ANC top seven and the national executive committee failed to make the cut.
“The cabal is divided and the evidence is out there. Just recently Hanekom spoke against Mantashe being put in charge of Eskom. Even Godongwana has no problem with Mashatile. He just wants to see the Budget speech through then Ramaphosa can go on and appoint Mashatile as his deputy.”
At the Nasrec national conference, the cabal had been banking on Eastern Cape Premier Oscar Mabuyane being elected as Ramaphosa's deputy in the ANC office, “because they were already thinking of succession".
Ahead of the national conference, Ramaphosa was prepared to resign on the back of a parliamentary panel report that posed difficult questions about his role in the theft of foreign currency that was hidden in a sofa at his Phala Phala game farm in Limpopo in 2020.
However, he was persuaded by members of the cabal - some who would have failed to make the cut into the ANC leadership structures in his absence - to hold on to the office keys a little longer. If Ramaphosa did not survive Phala Phala, the Sunday Independent heard, the cabal was desperate to have their preferred candidate next in line to take over the country's highest office, and they did not trust Mashatile to be pliant to their interests.
“The cabal’s agenda is simply that they are planning their future outside Ramaphosa because he is on his way out. They see themselves having to take control of the party and government after Ramaphosa. But the plot to stop Mashatile is going to fail. They have no chance.”
At Nasrec, Mashatile refused to openly align with any of the two competing camps, one backing Ramaphosa and another backing former Health minister Zweli Mkhize.
“He became the ANC deputy president based on his numbers, and not the backing of a slate,” said a sympathiser, even though the Mkhize lobby had backed Mashatile to become his second in command.
“But Ramaphosa was also clear even at the national conference that he was comfortable with Mashatile,” said the person.
The ANC sources said that the cabal once again fought to gain influence over the ANC national working committee but lost that battle as some of their preferred candidates including Phaahla and former Limpopo ANC secretary Soviet Lekganyane failed to make the cut.
“In comparison, a number of people went into the working committee that they did not want. For example, they did not want David Mahlobo (deputy minister of water and sanitation), Mdumiseni Ntuli (former KwaZulu-Natal ANC secretary) and Thandi Modise (defence minister). And these people were elected so they were not happy because what they wanted, they could not get.”
A person close to Mashatile said Ramaphosa's announcement of the decision was delayed only because the timing had to be right.
“It could have been done this week but Godongwana raised concerns that the reshuffle would overshadow his upcoming Budget speech.”
The Budget speech is scheduled for Wednesday. Another insider said: “Ramaphosa wanted to reshuffle but they said to him he must wait because if he does the reshuffle now, the changes in personalities will overshadow both the State of the Nation Address and the Budget speech.”
Other pending Cabinet appointments include the post of former public service and administration minister Ayanda Dlodlo, which became vacant over a year ago after she left the country to take up an executive director post on the board of the World Bank in Washington.
Mbalula’s recent election as secretary general of the ANC, which is a full-time position, also meant that he should be replaced as Transport Minister.