What Trump 2.0 means for SA

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during an election night event at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on November 6, 2024. - Republican former president Donald Trump closed in on a new term in the White House early November 6, 2024, just needing a handful of electoral votes to defeat Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP)

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during an election night event at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida, on November 6, 2024. - Republican former president Donald Trump closed in on a new term in the White House early November 6, 2024, just needing a handful of electoral votes to defeat Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP)

Published Nov 9, 2024

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President Cyril Ramaphosa congratulated Donald Trump on his presidential win, but analysts predict turmoil ahead.

Trump's victory casts a shadow over South Africa-US relations, strained by SA's stance on alleged Israeli genocide in Gaza.

According to analysts the implications for SA include eroding protection for Ramaphosa's alliance with US elites and increased domestic and international threats and GNU vulnerabilities to DA influence.

Experts further warn of shifting US foreign policy, complicated Gaza conflict stance, and economic uncertainty.

Trump’s victory has significant implications for SA and Ramaphosa within the Government of National Unity (GNU).

Efforts to reach presidential spokesperson Vincent Magwenya were fruitless.

However, Ramaphosa took to social media minutes after it was confirmed Harris would be unable to match Trump’s voter numbers to congratulate him.

“Congratulations to United States President-Elect -@realDonaldTrump- on your return to the presidency. I look forward to continuing the close and mutually beneficial partnership between our two nations across all domains of our cooperation. In the global arena, we look forward to our presidency of the G20 in 2025, where we will work closely with the US who will succeed us in the G20 presidency in 2026,” Ramaphosa wrote on social media.

However, experts have painted a gloomy picture for Ramaphosa’s SA, saying Trump’s victory spelled trouble for Ramaphosa as it was about to shake up SA’s political landscape.

Political analyst and independent writer, Sipho Tshabalala, said Trump’s success could put Ramaphosa’s hold on power in jeopardy.

Tshabalala intimated that Ramaphosa had cultivated a close alliance with America’s wealthiest elites, particularly the influential Menell and Oppenheimer families, under Joe Biden’s administration, who Trump had succeeded.

Tshabalala said with Trump’s return, the carefully crafted protection was crumbling. He further intimated that Ramaphosa’s dependence on the two powerful families’ influence left him exposed to domestic and international threats.

He took a swipe at the GNU, saying that Ramaphosa’s partner in the arrangement had a hold on him.

“The GNU, far from being a cooperative initiative, has allowed the DA to pull the strings on crucial government decisions, from foreign policy to key ministerial appointments,” Tshabalala said.

Another analyst, Tendai Mbanje, from the University of Pretoria’s Centre for Human Rights, speaking on national television yesterday said South Africa was in an uncertain space with Trump’s comeback.

“It’s going to make it harder for SA to make arguments with Trump at the helm. Especially with the GNU. So the government is between a rock and a hard place because Trump is a transactionalist that could be the key to ending the war in Gaza… However we must remember he has no soft spot for Hamas,” Mbanje said.

Dr Gideon Chitanga, a renowned international relations expert, speaking to IOL, warned that Trump’s win will cast uncertainty over US-Africa relations.

According to Chitanga, Africa was not a priority during the elections, and Trump’s “America First” policies will likely continue to prioritise American interests. Centre to his concern is that Trump’s business interests-driven foreign policy may not prioritise Africa among global challenges.

Saturday Star

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