Fuzile Jwara
Pretoria - The 2024 general election season is nearly upon us. Naturally, many people are wondering about the outcome of these results. There are some mumblings about a possible coalition government after the elections.
One question to be asked is: Is the South African governance structure conducive to a coalition government?
Firstly, let us try to understand what a coalition government is. A coalition government is a government formed jointly by more than one political party. Parties may decide to form a coalition government if there is a hung parliament, where no single party has a clear working majority following a general election.
This is according to the UK Parliament glossary.
I specifically utilised the UK definition of a coalition, as the South African axis of power, namely Legislature, Judiciary and Executive, are more or less replicas of the British colonial administrative system implanted in many colonies, including South Africa. However, there are differences, mainly: our head of state is a president, as opposed to a monarch, and they have a prime minister who runs the government.
In the event that there is no majority party in the upcoming elections, we may be forced to opt for a government formed by two parties or more. In theory, this may bode well for those who support the idea of pluralism in governance. However, this may not be as functional as we may like to think.
For example, there are metros being run by coalitions, such as Johannesburg Metro, Tshwane Metro, Nelson Mandela Bay and eThekwini Metro. These are four of the five biggest municipalities in South Africa, and they offer more than enough proof of the volatility of multi-party governance.
Tshwane and Johannesburg have seen more mayors in the past seven years than they had in the 18 years prior to 2016. Squabbles between coalition parties have become commonplace. Thus, the two metros have steadily declined in terms of service delivery.
It appears political parties are more interested in advancing their own political ideologies than they are in addressing social issues affecting citizens, judging by the frequency of motions of no confidence filed in Tshwane and Johannesburg, in particular. It appears that control of power precedes the strife of the people who trust political parties to deliver on their promises.
Nonetheless, at this juncture, we are hard-pressed to find much positivity about multi-party government. Perhaps, this opinion is cynical as we have not yet had a national coalition government. Therefore, we could find examples outside of South Africa for answers, particularly in Europe.
Countries such as Belgium, The Netherlands and Germany are prime examples of coalition governments that have been done correctly, but they have negotiation guidelines set out in their constitutions. Thus, a coalition government is informed by the law of the land. However, even in those cases, coalitions can collapse.
In September 2020, Reuters reported that the ruling coalition in Belgium had collapsed. For more than 624 days, the country was run by a “caretaker government”. In The Netherlands, after the last local election, the ruling party coalition government faced a motion of no confidence.
The main issues with coalitions are the negotiation window, and the ideological differences that could arise. The issues of coalition government are even visible in states that have constitutional provisions for such matters.
Now picture a scenario where there is no stable government in South Africa, even for just three months.
We have no clear guidelines, as we are very much akin to the UK system, which has only had one outright coalition government since 1945, between 2010 and 2015 (Conservative Party and Liberal Democrats). This coalition functioned on the similarities in policy goals between the two.
Our system relies on the stability brought about by a majority governing party.
Thus, a multi-party administration may not be that plausible, especially considering the vastly differing ideological positions of parties. We may actually see an EFF-ANC coalition or a DA-led multi-party coalition. In either case, South Africans should brace themselves for some serious tightrope governance and “on the edge of your seat” administration.
If we are to consider coalitions, then we need to be really honest about how our system works, or many will be blind-sided by the vulnerability of multi-party government rule.
I believe that the scramble for municipal control is a clear indication that South Africa is nowhere near being prepared for a coalition government.
In the lead-up to the election, perhaps we should prepare and internalise the idea that we could have multiple governments in a short space of time should we go the coalition route. Unfortunately, we are now at the apex of electoral democracy, a treacherous road filled with many unknowns.
But judging from the political models in Europe that are different to ours, which harness the power of coalition rule and the crisis of multi-party municipalities, I confidently believe that a coalition government would descend into a theatrical spectacle of power.
* Jwara is a MA in Sociology Candidate at the University of Johannesburg.
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.