By Sizo Nkala
Nigeria is a country beset by multiple crises ranging from insecurity and political instability to electricity and fuel shortages. The country is currently going through the latest round of acute fuel shortages which have pushed the price of the precious commodity beyond the reach of many who are struggling just to survive. Fuel shortages have crippled the Nigerian economy since July.
At the beginning of this month, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which is responsible for importing and distributing petroleum, announced a petrol price hike from 617 naira to 897 naira per litre.
There was a corresponding increase in the prices of private retailers of up to 1200 naira following the move by the NNPC. The NNPC attributed the fuel shortage to the debt it owes petroleum suppliers which is reportedly around the region of US$6.8 billion. Despite being one of Africa’s largest producers of crude oil, Nigeria imports almost all of its refined fuel needs.
The company’s debt struggles could be due to President Bola Tinubu’s administration’s decision to remove fuel subsidies which had kept the fuel prices low for decades after sustained pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The government had no fiscal room to maintain the subsidies due to declining oil production whose export revenues were used to finance the subsidies. Moreover, the government’s decision to liberalise the exchange rate and float the naira has also contributed to the fuel crisis.
Following this policy move, the naira has lost about 245 percent of its value which made imports prohibitively expensive. Nigerian businesses and households, the majority of which run on petrol and diesel generators because of the erratic supply of electricity are already bearing the brunt of the fuel shortage which is fast precipitating a socio-economic crisis.
Businesses are facing higher operational costs and reduced demand from consumers who are not faring any better in the tough economy. This will predictably lead to many businesses cutting jobs to remain afloat while exacerbating the unemployment crisis. The Nigerian economy only grew by 2.3 percent in 2023 which is not enough to absorb the millions of unemployed people.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, inflation increased to over 33 percent in March – the highest rate in almost three decades – as a result of fuel scarcity. Largely due to the cost of transport, food inflation rate was even higher at just above 40 percent leaving millions of Nigerians facing hunger and food insecurity.
According to the Global Report on Food Crises produced by the World Health Organisation (WHO), Nigeria is one of the worst affected countries in terms of acute food insecurity.
The public frustration from economic woes jeopardises Nigeria’s political stability. For the past few weeks, the country has witnessed widespread protests under the hashtag #EndBadGovernanceinNigeria as ordinary people put pressure on the government to address the dire economic situation. Some of the demands of the protesters included insecurity and hunger, release of people arrested for protesting, electoral reforms, recovery of stolen funds and the implementation of a living wage among others.
The Nigerian government responded to the protests with an iron fist. Over 100 protesters were arrested, and some were charged with treason as the security forces cracked down on the protests. The government resorted to the usual playbook of African governments which often characterised protests over genuine and legitimate grievances as being sponsored by malicious and criminal elements seeking to destabilise the country and bring down the sitting government.
In Kenya, President William Ruto, also dismissed the protests that rocked the country over economic hardships in June as the work of criminal elements bent on causing instability. It is indeed an unfortunate situation that citizens are denied the democratic space and constitutional rights to air their grievances against underperforming, incompetent, and corrupt governments.
Governments that are unresponsive and indifferent to the suffering of their citizens are the biggest contributors to political instability in Africa. Coup perpetrators take advantage of such crises as the one Nigeria is currently facing to initiate unconstitutional changes of government under the self-serving pretext of saving the country.
Their case is made easier by governments whose legitimacy is questioned over the failure to deliver the most basic of public goods. Hence, if the Nigerian government denies its citizens the democratic right to protest, what moral right does it have to ask the military juntas in Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea among others to restore democratic order?
* Dr Sizo Nkala is Research Fellow at the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Africa-China Studies
** The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media