DURBAN - ACADEMICS, economists and activists representing the unemployed have collectively warned that South Africa could see the eruption of looting and unrest similar to what was experienced in July last year if the high unemployment rate is not addressed.
The warning comes after data released on Tuesday by Statistics South Africa showed an increase in the number of unemployed people in the country. According to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for quarter 4 of 2021 the unemployment rate grew by 0.4 of a percentage point, taking the official statistics from 34.9% in the third quarter to 35.3% in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Youth aged 15-24 years and 25-34 years recorded the highest unemployment rates of 66.5% and 43.5% respectively.
Looking at the unemployment stats per province, KwaZulu-Natal’s unemployment rate stands at 32.4%. The Eastern Cape has the highest unemployment rate at 45.0%, followed by Mpumalanga at 39.7%, the Free State at 36.7% and Gauteng at 36.6%.
University of Zululand academic Professor Irrshad Kaseeram said the latest unemployment statistics, which showed an increase, especially among young people, should be a warning signal to the government that if the matter was left unattended, it could lead to more volatility in the country.
Kaseeram said there was a link between the emergence of social formations such as Operation Dudula and unemployment, coupled with lack of economic opportunities.
He added that the government needed to swiftly attend to the basics that would ensure the private sector was serious about attracting investment.
He cited investment in infrastructure as one of the government’s weaknesses, saying that this was either not done and when it was, often took long to implement.
“What the government should realise is that it is not only South Africa that is trying to appeal to the investors, but a host of other countries are also trying to appeal to the same investment community and therefore there should be a sense of urgency when going about projects,” said Kaseeram, adding that good governance was one of the key pillars in attracting investment as investors sought assurances when considering where to invest their money.
The revelations in the Zondo Commission of Inquiry, Kaseeram said, would provide a litmus test for the government.
“What many people would want to see is whether there are successful prosecutions for those fingered for wrongdoing because that will send a message that the government is serious about fighting corruption.”
He also noted how the July unrest had a corrosive effect as it scared many prospective investors from investing in the affected areas of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
An independent economist, Duma Gqubule, questioned the government’s will in tackling the unemployment problem, saying there were no signals of urgency.
“When you listen to the State of the Nation, the Budget speech and the recent statement from the Reserve Bank there is no sense that we have reached crisis mode with unemployment,” said Gqubule. He added that the July riots were a foretaste of what could happen in the future. “What we had last year was economic riots, borne out of frustration from the people that are unemployed, and it was a warning that more could come,” he said.
Khokhoma Motsi, co-ordinator of the Assembly of the Unemployed and Excluded, warned of looming danger if the unemployment crisis was not swiftly dealt with.
“When you are sitting with over 13 million people that are unemployed, then as a country we have a time bomb that is ticking and can explode in our faces at any given moment,” said Motsi.
He suggested that a quick intervention like the roll-out of the basic income grant could provide a stimulus to the economy which the country desperately needs.
“The grant could help stimulate demand in local markets enabling families to buy goods and services, something that would boost local production,” he said.
Social Security researcher Nkululeko Majozi emphasised the need for the roll-out of the basic income grant saying it had been shown to work in other countries.
“Our neighbour Namibia has implemented it and that has had a massive impact and we have also seen it applied in India, so it makes sense for South Africa to do the same,” Majozi said.
He added that investment in infrastructure also provided a chance for low skilled workers to be absorbed, citing the Expanded Public Works Programme as the kind of project that should be driven in many parts of the country.
“It may provide work for a limited period of time, but if done with more focus it could put a dent in the unemployment problem,” he said.
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