For years, Johannesburg has been feeling the effects of a mass migration to the Western Cape, with many South Africans lured by promises of picturesque scenery and a more laid-back lifestyle. However, a recent trend suggests that for some semigrants, the grass isn't as green as it seemed on the other side.
According to Cobus Odendaal, CEO of Lew Geffen Sotheby’s International Realty in Johannesburg and Randburg, there is a growing wave of inquiries from individuals exploring the possibility of returning to Johannesburg to reclaim a foothold in a more affordable housing market.
Odendaal notes that the appeal of the Western Cape has primarily stemmed from desires for a lifestyle change and perceived improvements in governance. However, the recent surge in the region’s property prices—soaring by 25% over the last five years—has begun to weigh heavily on those who made the leap.
In stark contrast, Johannesburg property prices have increased by a more modest 12%, compelling many to reconsider their decision amid rising economic pressures such as inflation and interest rates.
“In recent months, we’ve started fielding a growing number of enquiries from people looking to move back to Johannesburg, with particular interest in properties at the higher end of the market,” explained Odendaal.
“Granted, the Western Cape has much to offer, especially in terms of lifestyle and scenic beauty, but many who made the move are finding it challenging to sustain the higher costs associated with living in the Western Cape.”
Traffic woes
Moreover, logistical issues such as Cape Town's ongoing infrastructure struggles—including persistent water shortages and frustrating traffic congestion—have further diminished the allure of the city for former Joburg residents. These issues were some of the key reasons many initially opted to leave the more tumultuous Johannesburg for the tranquillity of Cape Town.
The findings from PayProp’s 2024 Annual Market Report underscore this shift, revealing that rental and property costs in the Western Cape significantly surpass those in other provinces. In contrast, Johannesburg continues to present an accessible market, with a wide range of property choices available for prospective buyers.
According to Odendaal, several factors underpin the trend of professionals rediscovering Johannesburg. He highlights the realisation that remote work is shifting back to a more traditional in-office model, forcing many to pivot back to Johannesburg where industries flourish and opportunities for networking and career advancement remain concentrated. “Johannesburg is still South Africa’s economic powerhouse, contributing nearly 16% of the nation’s GDP and over 40% of business services output,” he noted, asserting the city’s enduring status as the country’s business hub, with Sandton at its core.
Upward pressure
For many, the competitive nature of their industries means returning to Johannesburg is not merely an option but a necessity. As potential buyers begin to fix their sights back on Joburg’s relatively affordable yet high-value properties, the demand is poised to rise, leading to an upward pressure on property prices.
Lightstone’s 2024 in numbers report indicates that Sandton’s market is already exhibiting signs of recovery, with notable recognition in the Top 10 Value property band. With professionals flooding back into the area, the competition for prime properties is set to increase dramatically. “The window of opportunity is open—savvy investors should seize it before the market surges,” Odendaal stated emphatically.
Pivot
The unfolding narrative of Johannesburg’s real estate market suggests a significant pivot in the urban migration landscape, as former semigrants grapple with the realities of Cape Town living. For both individuals and investors, now may be the ideal time to explore the vibrant offerings of Johannesburg before prices inevitably climb once again.
Cape Argus