Eskom yesterday said it expected no load shedding during the summer period after achieving no load shedding during winter this year, which was the first winter with no load shedding since 2018.
The base case for summer was to have unplanned outages below 13 000MW, which is conservative, as in recent days the unplanned outages have been below 10 000MW.
In the base case, Eskom would use R3.5 billion for diesel to power the peaking power open cycle gas turbines (OCGT) even though it would have adequate coal-fired power available.
The power utility, in its Summer Outlook briefing, said this was because the peaking plant was designed to provide power to manage the peak demand and will be utilised in that manner, although Eskom aimed to minimise the utilisation of OCGTs.
With the penetration of renewable power, it becomes even more important to manage the peaks and valleys. Further, shutting down OCGTs is not necessarily the cheapest way to run the power system. Peaking power, although expensive, can offset mid-merit and base load power that is not needed to run 24/7.
If the unplanned outages increased to 14 000MW, then there would be 21 days of load shedding and the OCGT cost would rise to R10.3bn. At 15 000MW, the respective figures are 115 days and R23bn.
Everything was, however, not “hunky-dory” as there was slippage in the return to service of three units that have been on long-term outage.
Medupi unit 4 was forecast to return to service in September 2024 in the April Winter Outlook, but now it is expected to return to service only in March 2025.
Similarly, the synchronisation of Kusile unit 6 to the grid was scheduled for October 2024, but this has now been delayed to December 2024. Lastly, the implementation of the Koeberg unit 2 steam generator and long-term operating projects expected in September 2024 has now been shifted to December 2024.
The addition of 2 524MW in generation capacity by March 2025 should allow Eskom CEO Dan Marokane to declare that load shedding has ended and live up to its motto of “sustainable power for a better future”.
As part of its commitment to sustainable power, Eskom was busy with a detailed look into why its productivity per employee had deteriorated from generating 7.4 Gigwatt-hour (GWh) per employee in 2005 to only 4.5 GWh per employee in 2021.
“We need to address the issue of productivity comprehensively as we are committed to reducing the cost curve,” Marokane said.
Eskom chief financial officer Calib Cassim said current tariffs were some 25% to 30% below being cost reflective.
Eskom was in discussion with various stakeholders on unbundling tariffs to cover power station operating costs, transmission costs, distribution costs and a return on fixed assets.
In terms of addressing demand reduction, Eskom said they had achieved a 450MW reduction with the help of businesses and municipalities and they were aiming for 1 000MW reduction in the next financial year.
BUSINESS REPORT