Yuri Ramkissoon
For the next two weeks, the City of Baku will be abuzz with representatives from 197 countries and the European Union, attending the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 29th Conference of Parties (COP), 29 years since the first COP in Berlin in 1995.
Despite the distractions associated with the host of COP, Azerbaijan – as a fossil fuel-reliant country, and the uncertainty following the results of the US elections, committed participants must use COP as an opportunity to reach significant decisions about global climate action.
More than ever, decisive outcomes and actions are required from COP to assist countries, particularly developing countries, to mitigate against and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
The COP29 vision is based on two reinforcing pillars - Enhance Ambition, Enable Action, which aims for countries to develop more ambitious climate targets, particularly in climate finance, and ensure the implementation of plans and programmes. There have been calls from various international organisations, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, for a reform of the climate finance architecture to amass the trillions required by countries to secure a planet that is liveable for all.
This call is heavily supported by developing countries, including South Africa, that urgently require grant and concessional finance to fund climate response plans and actions.
It is expected that COP29 will negotiate a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) to mobilise greater finance for the climate agenda for developing countries who require trillions of dollars to support their mitigation and adaptation plans, and will lobby for larger funding amounts to bridge the existing vast funding gap that is required to meet their mitigation and adaptation needs.
Current funding is woefully short of what is required by developing countries. To date, negotiations around the NCQG have been slow and consensus on key operational decisions has not been reached. Decisions are urgently needed on funding targets that meet the needs of developing countries on which countries will contribute to the goal; timeframes for the disbursement of funds; how all climate change pathways can be addressed (mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage); the scope of the NCQG and how it applies to the Paris Agreement; ensuring “high quality” funding that is concessional, accessible, predictable and effective and ensuring transparency around the NCQG.
South Africa will push for a NCQG of $1.3 trillion (R23bn) per annum from various funding sources, with the Minister of Forestry, Fisheries, and the Environment (DFFE), Dion George, vociferously lamenting that financing mechanisms, to date, had proved insufficient in scale and effectiveness. Also essential, will be financing and resourcing of the Loss and Damage Fund. While operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund was agreed upon at COP28, greater focus on garnering pledges for the fund and build on the $700 million that has already been pledged, is needed.
To achieve mitigation goals, there will be a push at COP29 for countries to submit more ambitious nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in 2025, before COP30 at the end of next year. Nationally Determined Contributions are climate action plans drafted by each country under the Paris Agreement that outlines how that country plans to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to help meet the global goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
The Paris Agreement requires that NDCs are updated every five years with increasingly higher ambition, taking into consideration each country’s capacity. New NDCs are required in the first half of 2025. More ambitious emissions-reduction goals are required from countries, particularly the highest emitters, to achieve the now almost-impossible task of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
COP29 must see movement on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Article 6 allows cooperation between countries to achieve their NDCs through the trading of carbon credits earned through emissions reductions, which is seen by many as a significant tool to “bolster ambition in mitigation and adaptation, enhance capital markets, create viable economic models for climate positive action and technologies, channel financial and technical resources, including to the developing world, and enable those who need carbon markets to implement their climate plans.”
COP comes at the end of a deadly year in terms of natural disasters and severe weather events, with significant impacts on lives and livelihoods. This includes droughts and flooding in large parts of Africa, exacerbating existing inequalities, including poverty and unemployment. Climate change is also worsening humanitarian crises in conflict zones.
For Sudanese and Palestinians that have been displaced by war, or do not have access to basic resources and services, floods, poor rainfall, and high temperatures have exacerbated already unbearable conditions. It is essential that negotiators at COP29 do not fail the people that are impacted most by climate change, particularly those that do not have the means to deal with the impacts of climate change or to recover from climate-related disasters that impacts their lives, livelihoods, and communities.
Yuri Ramkissoon, Climate and Research Analyst, Presidential Climate Commission
BUSINESS REPORT